In less than three weeks, the St. Louis Rams will make one player, most likely Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, a very famous and rich man when they take him #1 overall in the up and coming NFL Draft.With the honor of being grabbed #1 and the riches that always follow (an expected signing bonus of at least 30 million dollars and a guarantee contract of 3 to 5 years) come high expectations. Expectations that sometimes proved to be too heavy on the shoulders of the draftee.
Of the 10 number one overall selections in the NFL Draft this decade, only three have sure-fire outstanding careers. Two had been consistent, albeit not great, starters. While the rest should be considered complete bust at this time.
2009: Detroit Lions: QB Matt Stafford, Georgia
The jury still is out on this strong armed former Bulldog. He took the usual slums rookie QBs are expected to have, but he displayed enough promise and more importantly to the Lions, leadership skills, to have the city excited for the first time in 15 years.
Status: Too early to project
2008: Miami Dolphins: OT Jake Long, Michigan
Made the Pro Bowl his first year in the league (only the fourth #1 pick to do so). He repeated the feat last season. Big and strong, Long, who started since Day One, is the anchor of the Dolphins’ offensive line.
Status: Boom
2007: Oakland Raiders: QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU
On the field, Russell is a complete bust. In three years with the team he has posted mediocre (4,083 passing yards with only 18 TDs and 23 interceptions and a QB rating of 66.09)numbers, at best and his future with the organization is in doubt. That said, it easy to blame Oakland (they bypassed RB Adrain Peterson and OT Joe Thomas, two Pro Bowl players) for this disaster, but in the spring of 2007, the Raiders did not had a choice but to grab a signal caller with the first pick. The team came off a pedestrian 2006 and were in dire need of a face lift.
Status: Complete bust at 24!
2006: Houston Texans: DE Mario Williams, North Carolina State
This selection will forever be remembered by the ‘what could have been’ factor no matter how well Williams does. He did made two (2010 and 09) Pro Bowls and had been a started since arriving to Houston. But the fact remains he hasn’t transformed the franchise. The Texans are still in need of defensive lien help despite investing millions. To make things more interesting, the two players pundits had them picking #1, RB Reggie Bush and QB Vince Young, had taken their teams to the playoffs, something the Texans are yet to experiment.
Status: Boom, but not great
2005: San Francisco 49ers: QB Alex Smith Utah
The great debate in 2005 was which quarterback the Niners will take at number one, Cal’s Aaron Rodgers or Smith. Scouts raved on and on about Smith’s physical and leadership abilities while at the same time, downgrading Rodgers despite having the stronger arm and a more complete background in a pro-set offense (Smith ran Urban Meyers’ complicated spread offense for the Utes). Still SF took Smith mostly because of his superior agility and accuracy. Two traits he has hardly displayed in the Bay during his tenure there.
In his defend the Niners had never surrounded the 6-foot-4 quarterback with a stable coaching staff nor a top flight WR or a decent offensive line. And despite it all, Smith displayed maturity, poise and blue chip athleticism late last year. He threw for 18 scorers (12 INTs) in an unimaginative offense. Given time, stability and a better receiving corps (Michael Crabtree), he still could develop into the franchise QB the team desperately need.
Status: Bust with potential
2004: New York Giants (trade) QB Eli Manning, Ole Miss
It is unfair to compare Eli and Payton’s careers, but such is the nature of the beast. Numbers wise, the Big Brother wins by a landslide. But overall, the former Rebel signal caller isn’t far off in terms of on the field success. Eli validated his lofty draft status when he delivered a Super Bowl title three years ago. But he is much more than one playoff run. Quietly, the youngest of the Manning in the NFL have taken his place among the elite QBs. His 4,021 passing yards, 27 TDs and a 93.1 rating in 2009 placed him on the top echelon. At 29, he will be entering the prime year for quarterbacks.
Status: Boom
2003: Cincinnati Bengals: QB Carson Palmer, USC
The best pick the Bengals had taken in more than twenty years. Injuries and poor team chemistry has robed him of more stardom, but overall, he is one of the best passers in the AFC. Good arm strength and top notch mechanics are what separate him from the pack. The only knock on him is that he hasn’t won on a consistent basis. But that is more a reflection of Cincinnati’s talent level than on Palmer. His career TD-INT ratio (128-80) is as solid as they come. With better receivers and a more creative offensive scheme, this 6-foot-5 pocket passer could have a big second half of his career.
Status: Boom
2002: Houston Texans: QB David Carr, Fresno State
Much like the Raiders (2007), the Texans did not have a real choice in 2002. This is not saying Carr was a bad pick at the time. In fact, an argument can be made that he was projecting stardom before the house felt on him in 2007. Blessed with better-than-average arm strength, good athleticism and pocket presence, Carr was viewed as the corner stone of the new Texas franchise. Unfortunately for all involve with his selection, the team failed to surround him with decent offensive line. Took 249 sacks and 594 hurries in just four year officially ending his confidence and his career as a functional NFL starting quarterback. His career is reminiscence of another highly touted passer, Jim Everret (Los Angels Rams QB in the early 1990s), who flamed out under constant pressure.
Status: Bust
2001: Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Vick, Virginia Tech
One of the most intriguing players ever to take the field, Vick was everything the Falcons envisioned, and sadly, more. On the field, few players matched him in athleticism. Blessed with a powerful left arm and the speed of a top tier wide receiver, Vick ruled the team until his demise in 2007. But what makes him a boom pick was his ability to raise the team’s level of play. He was a winning QB on a team that seldom had winning seasons prior to his arrival.
Status: Boom
2000: Cleveland Browns: DE Courtney Brown, Penn State
Brown has the distinction of being one of the worse top picks in the 2000s. Cleveland made this highly reel pass rushing defensive end their second straight (QB Tim Couch of Kentucky was drafted in 1999) number one pick. There was little argument about the need for an edge rusher in Brownville, but the team omitted obvious playing field flaws on Brown (lack of intensity, poor tackling technique and an apprehension to support the run) that in the end cost them dearly. They should had been better off taking DE John Abraham (South Carolina) which went 13th to Jets but is still playing (Atlanta Falcons) at a high level.
Status: Complete Bust
By Raul Colon
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