Every year there are a few teams that are supposed to be on downturn. Programs that are not projected to be more than average in the national scene but thanks to a combination of better-than-average coaching, a workable schedule and a good talent pool, managed to out performed expectations. This year there are three teams that possessed those traits.
Topping the list is perennial powerhouse USC. Banned from the post season because of NCAA sanctions, the Men of Troy will seem to be a program on decline. But this is Southern California which means that they still have one of the deepest talent bases in the country. Add to the mix an energetic head coach and a more than manageable schedule, and it is possible the Trojans could run the table and finish undefeated and near the top of the Bowl Championship Series standings.
The expectations are not that lofty in South Bend. Three years of underachieving has done away with that. Enter Brian Kelly; a motivator with radical offensives concepts and a reputation for quick turnarounds that, coupled with an underrated roster, could make the Irish a formidable foe come November.
Its seem odd to peg the surprising label to a team that had average 10 wins over the last five years, but for all those wins, West Virginia still have underachieved. Picked to play in the BSC title game at least two times in the last four seasons, the Mountneers have falter badly when all the chips were on the line. This has prompted many to dismiss them as realistic national contenders.
1.USC Trojans: This is new territory for the Trojans. Gone are the preseason top 5 rankings, the opportunity to play for the national champion and another PAC-10 title. Without the possibility of playing in the postseason, many predict a repeat of last year mediocre 9-4 record.
This is much better team than that. Sophomore QB Matt Barkley is a year older. He looked very sharp during spring practices. As always, the Trojans are loaded at the running back with the underrated Allen Bradford paving the way. Guard Butch Lewis leads a veteran offensive line.
While the defense lost many key figures such as end Everson Griffen and safety Taylor Mays, the unit is much improved thanks to the return of arguable one of the two best corners [TJ Bryan and Shareece Wright] in the conference. The anchor of the unit should be DT Jurrell Casey who is primed for a big year.
The schedule also helps. None of the Trojans 7 road games are against teams that were ranked in the final poll in 2009. Last year, new Head Coach Lane Kiffin took a less talented team [Tennessee] to a respectable 7-6 mark, including their first bowl appearance in two years. A perfect season is more than achievable.
2.Notre Dame Fighting Irish: New head man Brian Kelly is a master at turning around moribund programs. He put Central Michigan on the football map in just two seasons and did the same with was once a doormat Cincinnati program. In his tenure, the Bearcats went to two BCS games and won 10 games in three straight seasons, something the school last did in 1951, while in the process dominating the underrated Big East. He should be able to work his magic down in South Bend.
There are holes, more importantly at QB where inexperience is abundant. But that is not as worrisome as some may think. In 2008 Kelly used 4 different signal callers and still won the conference. His offense is that imaginative. Plus, keep an eye on Dayne Crist, a highly touted signal caller with a live arm and a good feel for the spread attack Kelly covets so much.
The problem could rest on defense where the lack of size up front could cost at least two games. The team is changing back to a 3-4 alignment where they can mask that deficiency. The linebacker corps should be the heat on the unit thanks to the return of three starters, including top playmaker Brian Smith and budding star Manti Te’o.
If two losses are all but assure, that leaves 10 winnable dates. If we subtract the only other ‘sure’ loss on the schedule, USC, the Irish are looking at a 9 win season.
3.West Virginia Mountneers: Some one needs to win the Big East, why not the most balance team in the league? Yes, Pitt is the trendy pick and with good reason. They have the offensive talent to easily win the conference. But they do not have the balance West Virginia possesses.
Linebackers J.T. Thomas and Pat Lazear are two of the best inside defenders in the league. The line is not the biggest, but it certainly one of the quickest in the nation. The secondary could be formidable if CB Brandon Hogan continues to develop.
RB Noel Devine leads a consistent, albeit, not explosive running attack. The key will be QB Geno Smith who is entering his first full season as a starter.
The schedule is not that daunting with only three possible losses in it. A revamped LSU could prove to be too much to handle on October 9th, as could a date with talented South Florida the following week. And there’s the always entertaining Backyard Brawl against archrival Pitt. Expect West Virginia to win at least 9 games for the third consecutive season, but this time against the much tougher schedule.
By Raul Colon
rcolon@nfldraftdog.com
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