The 2008 NFL Draft is coming up in a couple days and many die hard NFL fans like to try and figure out which college prospect is going to be selected by which NFL team.People that don't "get it" have asked me time and time again, "what's the big deal?" or "Why do we do it?" Well, because it's fun, we can play general manager, plan strategy, evaluate college prospects and talk about NFL team needs and probable picks around the water cooler at work. The real hardcore draftniks can even come up with their own Mock Drafts and compare them after the draft with the experts like ESPN. But what's especially cool is that most of the so called "expert mock Drafts" are really no more accurate than the casual fan doing one at home.
The so called experts seem to think they get inside information from NFL personnel directors, scouts, general managers, and yes even coaches and owners, but in reality, if they do get information, it is usually mis-information. Why would an NFL team give a reporter a scoop that could jeopardize his chances of drafting the player he wants? So the real key is to get a good evaluation of the college prospects and NFL team needs and go with your gut instincts. Here are my gut instincts for the 2008 NFL Draft, which I have compiled in Draft Dog's 2008 NFL Mock Draft.
1. The Dolphins signed Jake Long, Michigan, to a huge contract, so the mystery is gone from the first pick. It was a smart move by the Phins, the NFL rules allow negotiations with the first pick, so why not? The Raiders screwed the pooch last year by having QB JaMarcus Russell hold out all of training camp. I think in the future you will see the first pick almost always work out a deal prior to the draft. My advice, if the team that has the top pick can't work out a deal prior to the draft, then draft someone else, because it makes no sense to have the your first pick hold out, time is short, they are restricted free agents in three years and totally free after five, and it usually takes 2-3 years for a rookie to develop.
2. I see the Rams grabbing defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey from LSU here. Adam Carricker was their first pick last year, but he is really a defensive end. I was actually surprised they played him inside last year, I think it was more out of necessity that anything. With Carriker and Dorsey I expect the Rams defense to be much improved in 2008. Oh, and if it was my choice I would pick Sedrick Ellis, everything being equal, Ellis is just as quick and strong and has been more consistent and durable over the years.
3. This one is a no brainer here, the Falcons desperately need a quarterback and the best QB in the draft falls right into their laps. QB, Matt Ryan, Boston College. Ryan has all the intangibles you want in a franchise quarterback. The only thing that could throw this off is the Ravens, Vikings or Bears trading up here to snatch Ryan away. Matt Ryan is probably not falling to the Ravens so get that idea out of your mind.
4. It starts getting tricky about right here because the Raiders could go a number of different ways. They might grad RB Darren McFadden, who many consider the best player in this draft, but they already have Justin Vargas, who had a good year in 2008 and they drafted Michael Bush from Louisville last year, who if he wouldn't have broken his leg his senior year, would have been a first round draft pick. They also have LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes on their roster. No I think they will take the best defensive player still on the board in DE/OLB, Chris Long, Virginia. He will also be a fan favorite as his dad Howie was a hall of fame Raider.
5. The Chiefs just traded Jared Allen to the Vikings. Don't get your panties in a wad Chief fans, Allen was a shot of Jack Daniels away from seeing a year long suspension and demanded a huge contract, the Viking might regret that move. The Chiefs aren't going to the playoffs in 2008 so it's time to rebuild with some youth, they get an extra first round pick and a few others. They wanted Jake Long, but he is gone and no other tackles are worthy of this high of a pick. The only other player that they might select ahead of DT, Sedrick Ellis, USC is DE Vernon Gholston from Ohio State. I think it will be Ellis though, both fill a need, but I have Ellis rated a little higher. Ellis will be a pro bowl tackle in the NFL and could be defensive rookie of the year.
6. The Jets have Thomas Jones and Leon Washington at running back, so they might take Vernon Gholston, who really fills more of a need. But sticking with the best player available theme they will likely select RB, Darren McFadden, Arkansas. This is where they will get some phone calls as the Cowboys would like to get Darren McFadden, but they are not going to give up the house for him and more than likely the Jets demands will be too high. If McFadden falls from this spot, there is a high probability that the Cowboys will try to up and get him because the next team likely to select him seems to be the Broncos at #12.
7. New England gets this pick in a trade with the 49ers from last year. They could go cornerback here, but DE, Vernon Gholston, Ohio State is by far the highest rated player left on the Draft Board. Some people have talked about Keith Rivers at this spot, first of all I think it's to early for Rivers and secondly he doesn't fit the mold as a pass rushing linebacker, Rivers is a better fit in a traditional 43 defense. If Ghoston gets taken by the Jets, the Patriots might reach a little and take Florida's Derrick Harvey.
8. This is the most difficult pick for me, conventional wisdom has the Ravens believing all the so called draft experts and passing on QB, Brian Brohm, Louisville. They might just draft a cornerback here and then try and trade back into the bottom of the first round and getting Brohm or maybe Joe Flacco. That's not a bad idea, but it's no guarantee that you will be able to get back into the first round and get Brohm or Flacco, the Vikings or the Bears could snatch one or both players away and then the Ravens would look pretty stupid for passing up a potential franchise quarterback in Brian Brohm. I guess it all depends if they consider Brohm a franchise type quarterback, I happen to think he can become that player.
9. The Bengals are praying that Sedrick Ellis will fall down to them, but that is highly unlikely. They really need defensive tackle help, but this is a little early for Kentwan Balmer, so I look for the Bengals to select OLB, Keith Rivers, USC. Rivers is a very athletic linebacker, highly rated and a good value here. He would be an upgrade for either Rashad Jeannty or Dhani Jones. They would like to get a wideout to replace disgruntled Chad Johnson, but no receiver presents good value here.
10. The Saints need help at cornerback, outside linebacker, defensive tackle, tight end and yes even running back. With the best defensive back still on the board they snatch him up in a heart beat. CB, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Tennessee State is a small school talent and wasn't even valued as a first rounder until the Senior Bowl and NFL Scouting Combine. He has everything you could want in a corner except experience against top competition, which he will get in a hurry in the NFL. Leodis McElvin from Troy or Mike Jenkins from South Florida are also right there neck and neck with Cromartie.
11. This is one of those picks where the Bills might try to put a square peg in a round hole. WR, Devin Thomas, Michigan State isn't really rated this high, but this receiver class is so weak and the Bills are so desperate for receiver help they might reach for him. Not that Thomas isn't talented, he is a big play waiting to happen and has nice size at 6' 2" 215 pounds. His 4.43 speed teamed up with Lee Evans on the outside would give the Bills a dangerous pass catching duo.
12. Do the Broncos like Chris Williams or Ryan Clady? One of those two tackles will likely be selected by the Broncos, but they also need help at defensive tackle, safety, wide receiver and running back. Coach Shanahan loves to draft running backs and Rashad Mendenhall will draw a long look. I think however, Clady would be the highest rated player at this point and would give young quarterback Jake Cutler some much needed protection.
13. I was real high on DeAngelo Willimas when he came out of college, and I still think the Carolina Panthers made a good choice, but the NFL is a two back league and Williams isn't a big back. RB, Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois however is, and he brings an impressive size speed, package to the table. Mendenhall is 5' 10" 225 pounds and runs a 4.46 forty! I even think the Cowboys will consider trying to trade up here to get Mendenhall if he starts to fall.
14. The Junior OL, Branden Albert, Virginia really rose up the draft boards once he declared for the draft. The Chicago Bears will take a long look at Albert if he is still on the Draft Board. They also need receiver and quarterback help, but Albert would be too good to pass up here if he fell this low. Chris Williams or Jeff Otah might even get the nod if Albert is gone at this spot. If Mendenhall falls down to the 14 spot I think the Bears will strongly consider drafting him, Cedric Benson has been a huge bust. Watch the Bears shock the world by drafting QB Joe Flacco here, I wouldn't be all that shocked, Flacco has a cannon for an arm and the Bears need a quarterback.
15. The Lions have so many holes they could go a number of different directions here, but linebacker Jerod Mayo, from Tennessee makes the most sense if he is still available. If Phillip Merling is still on the board he is the other prospect that fits the bill, but Mayo is the only inside linebacker that looks like a first rounder at this point and that's just what the doctor ordered for the Lions, unless Lion fans, you really think Paris Lenon is the answer on the inside?
16. The Arizona Cardinals never seem to be able to break out of the woulda, shoulda, coulda cycle. They actually haven't drafted that bad over the years, but owner Bill Bidwell just doesn't show the commitment to keep his good players from leaving. DB Antrel Rolle has been a disappointment, but I said it when he came out and now my prognosis is coming true, Rolle was, and is, better suited to play safety and reportedly they are going to move him there this year. That leaves a hole at cornerback and the Cardinals should get lucky as one the top four, first round caliber, cornerbacks should still be available here. I like CB, Leodis McKelvin, Troy, he possesses blazing speed and can return punts. They might select Mike Jenkins or Aqib Talib also, it just depends which corner they like more and if they have devalued Talib due to his addiction to the wacky tobaccy. Bidwell will probably play paper, rock, scissors to decide which corner to select.
Check back tomorrow and I will finish the first round and give you some of my sleeper picks for the later rounds.
By Robert Bryant, owner of NFL Draft Dog and The NFL Draft Site and member of the Football Writers Association of America.
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