This is the second part of my "Strategies for the 2008 NFL Draft" covering the bottom half of the first round, picks 17-32. To check out picks 1-16 click here.
The bottom half of the first round is more difficult to devise a draft strategy for. Not only do player evaluations fluctuate more when you get to these picks, but the teams are generally more talented and their needs aren't always as obvious. Some of the better teams even totally disregard team needs and stick to the best player available theme, like last year the Cowboys drafted OLB/DE Anthony Spencer and arguably linebacker was their strongest position. They drafted Spencer for the future, forecasting Greg Ellis retiring in a couple years. As it turns out, they probably should have drafted a cornerback.
Also, as a fan, try not to get overly fixated to the first round, some of these teams have multiple picks in the later rounds and in this draft especially, some fantastic talent at receiver and running back will be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
17. In case you have been living in a cave, the Vikings traded this pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for DE Jared Allen. If the Chiefs pass on a tackle with their first pick (#5) they will almost certainly pick a tackle at this spot. They would be ecstatic if OT, Chris Williams, Vanderbilt was still on the board. If Ryan Clady, Branden Albert, Jeff Otah and Williams are already gone, the Chiefs will be in a little trouble, but I expect one of those guys to be available here, so despite what the experts are saying, they don't really have to take a tackle with their first # 1 pick. The only other three players the Chiefs might consider here are defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Phillip Merling and cornerback Mike Jenkins. But remember, the Chiefs now have six picks in the first three rounds, they will fill their roster with young talent and should be able to get 4-5 quality starters out of this draft.
The bottom half of the first round is more difficult to devise a draft strategy for. Not only do player evaluations fluctuate more when you get to these picks, but the teams are generally more talented and their needs aren't always as obvious. Some of the better teams even totally disregard team needs and stick to the best player available theme, like last year the Cowboys drafted OLB/DE Anthony Spencer and arguably linebacker was their strongest position. They drafted Spencer for the future, forecasting Greg Ellis retiring in a couple years. As it turns out, they probably should have drafted a cornerback.
Also, as a fan, try not to get overly fixated to the first round, some of these teams have multiple picks in the later rounds and in this draft especially, some fantastic talent at receiver and running back will be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
17. In case you have been living in a cave, the Vikings traded this pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for DE Jared Allen. If the Chiefs pass on a tackle with their first pick (#5) they will almost certainly pick a tackle at this spot. They would be ecstatic if OT, Chris Williams, Vanderbilt was still on the board. If Ryan Clady, Branden Albert, Jeff Otah and Williams are already gone, the Chiefs will be in a little trouble, but I expect one of those guys to be available here, so despite what the experts are saying, they don't really have to take a tackle with their first # 1 pick. The only other three players the Chiefs might consider here are defensive ends Derrick Harvey and Phillip Merling and cornerback Mike Jenkins. But remember, the Chiefs now have six picks in the first three rounds, they will fill their roster with young talent and should be able to get 4-5 quality starters out of this draft.
18. The Houston Texans, like the Chiefs, are another team desperately needing help at the offensive tackle position. By this time in the draft, the top tackles will almost all be gone, so if one of the top dogs is still on board, they might grab him, but more than likely they will grab running back RB, Jonathan Stewart, Oregon. Reggie Bush can't do it alone and Stewart is a special talent at running back, he had toe surgery on March 10th, but I don't think it will hurt his draft stock because he ran a 4.48 at the 2008 NFL Scouting Combine. Stewart is so good I think Dallas will try to trade up here and get him. I only rate 3 running backs (McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart) as true first round material and Dallas really wants one of them.
19. Most people have the Eagles taking a receiver here and that is a possibility, but the receivers are very suspect this year, if you want a receiver you are better off waiting until the second round. They are going to get at least two receivers in this draft, probably in rounds 2-4, but the best player still on the boards will likely be Phillip Merling or Derrick Harvey. DE Phillip Merling, Clemson is a little bigger and fits the Eagles system better. Since the release of Jevon Kearse the Eagles are very thin at defensive end after Trent Cole. They also need free safety help, but there isn't one worthy of being drafted this high.
20. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could go in a number of different ways here, maybe a running back like Jamaal Charles, Felix Jones or Chris Johnson. They also need help at cornerback, Ronde Barber is entering his 12th season. However, receiver is by far their biggest need, the only problem is the receivers in this draft class all have issues. Joey Galloway is their only weapon and he is 36 years old. WR, Limas Sweed, Texas looks like the safest bet, (if there is such a thing). DeSean Jackson will also draw a lot of interest due to his return ability, but Sweed is a big receiver that can go up and get the ball. Sweed suffered most of the year with a wrist injury, if not for the injury, Sweed would have likely emerged as a top 15 pick in this 2008 NFL Draft.
21. The Redskins need help at defensive end, offensive tackle, receiver and defensive tackle. For most of the year almost all the draftniks out there had the Skins taking Calais Campbell from Miami, but he had a mediocre year, looked out of shape at the combine and has almost certainly fallen out of the first round. Defensive Ends Phillip Merling, Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are also highly probable, but Harvey and Groves are better suited in a 34 defense and Merling will likely be long gone by this pick. I think they might take sleeper DT, Kentwan Balmer, UNC, he is an athletic talent with nice size (6' 4" 307 lbs). Cornelius Griffin played only average in 2007 and isn't the long term answer on the inside for the Skins. Its not the sexy pick, but it is practical.
22. Yes the Dallas Cowboys traded for cornerback Pac Man Jones, and they really wanted to draft offense here, heck they have drafted defense in the first round eight years in a row. But the way my 2008 NFL Mock Draft played out, CB Mike Jenkins, South Florida fell down to them and he is way to good to pass up, in fact, it is a little unlikely he will fall down this low. If Pac Man works out, gets reinstated and stays out of trouble, I could even see Anthony Henry getting moved to free safety. With Jenkins on board, the Dallas secondary might turn into a strength instead of a weakness. I am not as in love with running back Felix Jones as the rest of the draftniks are, I think he is good, but really no better than Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson or even Ray Rice. Dallas can get a top running back by trading up in round two. The Cowboys might even try to trade up and get RBs Rashard Mendenhall or Jonathan Stewart.
23. It's hard to predict what the Steelers are going to do, they don't always follow their team needs and tend to draft for 2-3 years down the road. This year might be different as they look to have glaring needs on their offensive line. Alan Faneca is now a member of the New York Jets and Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh looks like a prospect that could play tackle or guard. If Otah falls to them here, he would be the ideal selection, but if Derrick Harvey is still available here, he would be almost to hard to pass up. They might even take a giant receiver like James Hardy from Indiana, they haven't had a big receiver since they lost Plaxico Burris.
24. The Tennessee Titans will almost certainly draft WR James Hardy, Indiana, Malcolm Kelly, DeSean Jackson or Limas Sweed. I like James Hardy here, Hardy is a very intriguing prospect, he is a converted basketball player and is huge (6' 5.5" 216 lbs), and fast (4.47). He could easily emerge as the best receiver in this draft class in 2-3 years. Vince Young would have a guy that he could easily pick out running in the secondary, there aren't many 6' 6" defensive backs and even if he is covered, could out jump almost any cornerback in the league. Cornerback, defensive end, defensive tackle and offensive guard will be addressed later in the draft.
25. The Seattle Seahawks have a lot of holes and they really need a tight end, yes they might draft Purdue's Dustin Keller or USC's Fred Davis, but neither one of those prospects are a good value here, Keller is just a bulked up receiver and Davis isn't overly fast, he (Davis) might have trouble separating from fast linebackers and safeties. They will probably draft DT Kentwan Balmer if he falls down to them, but if he is gone, they might draft one of the top receivers which will probably fall down here to them. They lost D.J. Hackett to free agency and Deion Branch is recovering from a knee injury. WR Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma isn't real fast in the 40 yard dash, he doesn't look good on the stop watch, but on film he gets separation from receivers, comes out of his breaks quickly and probably has the best hands from all the receivers in this draft.
26. I highly doubt DE, Derrick Harvey, Florida falls down this far in the draft, but that's the way this mock played out. Regardless, if he fell down here to the Jacksonville Jaguars he would be selected in about 10 seconds. I am not as high on Harvey as most, he didn't look very fast at the NFL Scouting Combine, his 4.82 forty time was nothing special, but he does look very explosive on film. The only concern I have on Harvey is his weight, he bulked up very fast, almost to fast, and it might hurt his quickness, he went from about 250 pounds to 271 pounds in a little over a year. But back to the Jaguars, they parted ways with Marcus Stroudt, so defensive tackle is a need, but there isn't a tackle worthy of this high of a draft selection. They need help at offensive tackle and one of the top dogs might fall down to them here, but I doubt it. They are not setting in a good spot at 26 for the position that they need, so they might even reach and draft a safety like Kenny Phillips or Tyrell Johnson here.
27. The San Diego Chargers have a solid team, but they do have needs at cornerback, offensive tackle and running back. Picking this low they have to be careful and not reach like they did last year with receiver Craig Davis. When they selected him (Davis) at #30 over all in the 2007 NFL Draft I just scratched my head. They would be advised to take solid offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus from Boston College. Cherilus (6" 6" 315 pounds) would be an excellent choice because he is so experienced playing on the right side, Shane Olivea and Jeromey Clary didn't get the job done in 2007 at right tackle. Don't count out Virginia Tech offensive tackle Duane Brown either, he has probably the best feet of all the tackles in this draft. The Chargers will be one of the targets for the Dolphins, Bears, Ravens, Chiefs or Falcons to trade back into the bottom of the first round and get one of the top quarterbacks if they fail to get one with their first pick.
28. The Dallas Cowboys will focus on offense with most of their remaining picks if they do get a cornerback with their first, first round pick. All the top receivers will likely be gone except one, it might not be WR, DeSean Jackson, California, but if he is still available he would be very hard to pass up. The Cowboys haven't really had anyone to return punts since Deion Sanders and Joey Galloway left, they used Terrance Newman there last year at times, but that was a move in desperation, because they can't risk injury to their top cornerback doing that. Jackson is raw at receiver and small at 5' 9" 167 pounds, but he has blazing speed, running a 4.35 at the combine. If they get a receiver and a corner with their first two picks, I look for them to trade up to the early part of the second round and get one of the top running backs.
29. The San Francisco 49ers have this pick from the Colts and they desperately need it. Most draftniks have them taking a receiver here, but my San Francisco 49er expert Frank Miseage informed me that receiver is not as high as a need as most think. Mike Martz is now the offensive coordinator and he brought with him future hall of fame receiver Isaac Bruce. They will get a small, quick receiver in the later rounds, but the bigger need is at outside linebacker, they need a pass rusher and the best one still available is DE Quentin Groves, Auburn or USC's Lawrence Jackson, who better fits the traditional 43 defense, Jackson just doesn't have the speed to play outside linebacker, however Groves does, he is 6' 3" 255 lbs. and ran a 4.51 at the 2008 NFL Scouting Combine.
30 . This is a tough pick, if you look at the Green Bay Packers roster, they just don't have that many apparent needs. Will they just pick best available player? Maybe, but this low in the first round if you ask all 32 teams who the best player was that was still available, you would get about 20 different answers. They need a tight end to back up Donald Lee and Dustin Keller, Purdue is the best pass catching tight end in the nation with blazing speed (4.53). He won't provide much help in the running game, at 6' 3" 244 pounds, he doesn't get much push while blocking, but get this bulked up receiver out in the secondary and he will run away from almost any linebacker in the NFL, he will have to be covered with a corner or a free safety. Keller will also give new quarterback Aaron Rogers another much needed weapon.
31. This is probably the toughest pick in this entire mock draft. The New York Giants need a free safety and linebacker, but there isn't really one worthy of this high of a pick. They might try to trade back out of this spot and draft S Kenny Philips, CB Justin King, OLB Tavares Gooden or LB Dan Connor later in round #2. But unable to do that, they would be better off taking a raw, talented safety that could end up being one of the surprises of this entire draft. Safety Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State, is probably the best player that no one has heard about. Playing at tiny Arkansas State he hasn't seen the top competition, but like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, he has the size, speed combination that NFL Scouts covet. Johnson measures 6' 0" 205 pounds and runs a 4.46 forty. He is already a great tackler and special teams player, but will have to refine his coverage technique and adjust to the speed of the NFL. Heck watch the Giants surprise everybody and draft receiver Early Doucet or Jordy Nelson. There is also talk of trading tight end Jeremy Shockey, so drafting USC tight end Fred Davis is also possible. Now you can see why this pick is so difficult.
Now, as promised, I will give you some very under rated prospects that will likely be selected in rounds 2-7 that could be very good NFL players, even potential pro bowl players given a couple years to develop and good health:
1. RB Jamaal Charles, Texas
2. S DaJuan Morgan, NC State
3. CB Charles Godfrey, Iowa
4. CB Antwaun Molden, Eastern Kentucky
5. WR Dexter Jackson, Appalachian State
6. OL Brandon Keith, Northern Iowa
7. LB Stanford Keglar, Purdue
8. S Haruki Nakamura, Cincinati
9. DE/OLB Curtis Johnson, Clark Atlanta
10. WR Arman Shields, Richmond
11. OG Mackenzy Bernadeau, Bently
12. QB Josh Johnson, San Diego
13. RB Kevin Smith, Central Florida
14. WR Jerome Simpson, Coastal Carolina
15. DT Letroy Guion, Florida State
By Robert Bryant, owner of NFL Draft Dog and The NFL Draft Site and member of the Football Writers Association of America.
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