02 May 2008

Winners and Losers of the 2008 NFL Draft: NFC

The rich got richer in the 2008 NFL Draft as many of the teams with the highest marks in my book were also teams that went deep into the playoffs in 2007 and look to be there again in 2008 with an infusion of NFL ready young talent. Here is how I graded out the NFC:

The winners:

Dallas Cowboys: A The Cowboys come up a winner in the 2008 draft in part because they obtained an additional 1st round pick from Cleveland for the acquisition of Brady Quinn last year. The Cowboys made the most of their fortune by grabbing a great complimentary back in Felix Jones even though Rashard Mendenhall was still on the board. I think Dallas went into this draft targeting Jones because he would be a great second punch after Marion Barber. Questions about Mendenhall being a 1 year wonder may have crept into the Cowboys’ mind as well. Mike Jenkins came into the offseason as the #1 corner in the draft and the Cowboys secured him in the late 1st round and addressed a position of need. Martellus Bennett may have the most upside of any tight end in the draft and Tashard Choice was a later round grab who may develop. The rich got richer in the 2008 draft in my opinion and the Cowboys were at the front of the line.

New York Giants: A How is it possible the Super Bowl champs come away with this high of a grade in the 2008 draft? Because they didn’t get to be champs by whiffing on draft day and scored high again this year with Kenny Phillips headlining their choices. Phillips was the most talented safety in this draft and the Giants filled one of their biggest needs and didn’t have to reach or trade to get what they wanted. Terrell Thomas out of USC will be a productive player on Sundays and the Giants took Mario Manningham in just the right spot. Manningham had some issues in the weeks before draft day and the Giants selected him in the 3rd round so they won’t be burned too bad if he is a bust or a head case. Snagging MLB Jonathan Goff and QB Andre Woodson in the later rounds were the icing on the cake for what was a perfect draft day for the G-men.

Seattle Seahawks: A- Seattle may have reached a little with their first round selection of DE Lawrence Jackson out of USC, but who else should they have picked? I can’t make a good case for any of the other players that Seattle passed on and Seahawks GM Tim Ruskell has a pristine record of selecting the right player on draft day. I have a feeling 3 years from now nobody will be calling Jackson a bust. Seattle made one of the best moves of the day by jumping up to grab the most complete NFL ready TE in the draft in John Carlson out of Notre Dame. Carlson fills Seattle’s biggest need and could end up being the starter in week 1. Seattle addressed other needs by selecting DT Red Bryant and grabbing the #1 rated kicker in the draft in Brandon Coutu.

Carolina Panthers: B+ Carolina put all of their chips on the table this year by jumping the projections and selecting Oregon RB Jonathan Stewart ahead of other running backs ranked above him. Carolina also traded away next year’s #1 to select OT Jeff Otah. In Stewart and Otah, the Panthers found two rookies who will play major roles in 2008. The Panthers did a great job of finding players who will make an impact immediately. The panthers also stole Dan Connor in the 3rd round after many mock drafts had him as a late first or early second round pick. The Panthers had a very solid draft overall. Their grade is effected slightly because there is a chance they passed on Rashard Mendenhall and Felix Jones and took the wrong running back in Stewart. I thought Stewart was the most complete RB in the draft and he received a clean bill of health on his toe so he should be ready for the start of training camp.

Atlanta Falcons: B+ The Falcons addressed many of the issues facing their franchise for next season. The Falcons got their franchise QB in Matt Ryan and he will help to foster this franchise as they look to move on without Mike Vick as the face of their team. Sam Baker was a solid choice at OT and the Falcons scored with the choice of Curtis Lofton in the second round. I had Lofton as the #2 linebacker in this draft class and he is a sleeper pick for defensive rookie of the year in my book. I don’t think Matt Ryan is a future elite QB but the Falcons had to make this move for their franchise to heal. Glenn Dorsey may have made more sense from a football standpoint, but Ryan will help the Falcons move into a new era of football, regardless of the immediate results on the field.

San Francisco 49ers: B The 49ers draft was very solid. Selecting DT Kentwan Balmer in the 1st round filled the 49ers largest hole and they continued to make smart selections in the later rounds. Chilo Rachal will be a starting guard in the NFL and San Francisco found a very talented player in Reggie Smith and somehow snagged the talented corner in the 3rd round. None of these picks were flashy or will be in the running for rookie of the year, but these players will make the 49ers a better football team in 2008 and beyond.

St. Louis Rams: B The Rams possibly had the most pressure on them of any team in the 2008 draft. The Dolphins pick had been long rumored to be OT Jake Long, and when that news came down the week before the draft the Rams had a tough decision to make. Selecting Chris Long over Glenn Dorsey was a very gutsy move, I just wonder if it wasn’t more about last year’s #1 pick Adam Carriker than it was either of them. Selecting Dorsey would have meant moving Carriker to DE and that wouldn’t be the best fit for him. Dorsey is a better talent than Carriker, but Chris Long has a great chance to be one of the most exciting defensive players in the NFL immediately. The Rams reached probably more than any team on draft day by making Donnie Avery the 1st WR taken in an abysmal year for talent at receiver. The rams found great value in OT John Greco and OG Roy Scheuning. 3 years from now we could be talking about this being the best group of draft choices of 2008.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: B- I liked the Bucs draft even though it didn’t have much star power. Aqib Talib is a perfect CB for the Tampa cover 2 and will be starting this season. Talib was a great catch at #20 and would have been selected higher if not for some questions about his character, but Jon Gruden will have no problem reeling him in. I wasn’t huge on the selection of WR Dexter Jackson in the second round because of his size and level of competition, but he was chosen in the range where you can take a chance on a player like that. Also, every WR in the 2008 class had issues preventing them from being a top rated talent so why couldn’t Jackson end up being the best WR in this class? DT Dre Moore and OG Jeremy Zuttah will contribute immediately and Gruden continued to stock pile QBs in Josh Johnson from San Diego. Johnson was a nice choice so late in the draft because he has so much raw potential. There will be no pressure on Johnson to develop and if he turns into a starting or second string NFL QB then Gruden continues to be a genius, there was no risk here like there may have been with a player like Colt Brennan.

The mediocre:

Detroit Lions: C+ Gosder Cherilus was a major reach by the Lions in the first round, but they made up for it with their picks in the later rounds. LB Jordon Dizon is a gutsy player that will be a fan favorite in Detroit. The selection of RB Kevin Smith from Central Florida may be the steal of the 2008 draft and is my sleeper to be the offensive rookie of the year. Smith could be the opening day starter for the Lions and I honestly don’t understand how he slipped to be a 3rd round pick. Maybe Cherilus will play out to be a better choice than Jeff Otah out of Pittsburgh, and the selection of Smith covers them for passing on Rashard Mendenhall and Felix Jones. If not for their first round reach at tackle, I would have rated these selections much higher.

Washington Redskins: C+ The Skins had a good draft, their offense got a gigantic infusion of talent, but they failed to address a glaring depth and talent problem on the defensive line and in their secondary. They traded down and still got the best receiver on most draft boards in Devin Thomas and in round two they got a tight end that was very productive in Fred Davis, who was USC's leading receiver and carried a borderline first round grade most of the season. He (Davis) gives the Redskins a very talented tight end duo teamed up with Chris Cooley. Also in round 2, they selected WR Malcolm Kelly, who until he ran a slow 4.56 forty at Oklahoma's Pro Day, was rated as the top receiver on many draft boards. They got a very solid punter in round 6 in Durant Brooks, he has a monster leg and averaged 45.1 yards per punt. But my favorite pick for the skins (Round 6), was QB Colt Brennan, I could easily see him beating out Jason Campbell in a couple years. I have been very critical of the Redskins’ offseason starting with their hire of head coach Jim Zorn. The Redskins other late round picks other than Colt Brennan weren’t very intriguing and Brennan could be a decent pick if Zorn brings his pass happy offense to Washington. My gut says Zorn is no longer the coach of the Redskins by the time any of these players actually make an impact on the field, but you have to hand it to Washington for finding so much raw talent at the top of their draft.

Arizona Cardinals: C The Cardinals obviously went into this draft to fill 3 major areas of need at CB, DE and WR but their choices are what earns them low marks. The choice of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie would be better if the Cardinals had a stronger corner opposite him, but Rodgers-Cromartie is a finesse corner with issues about the competition he has played against. Selecting DE Calais Campbell from Miami is a project but they took him at a great point in the draft where they didn’t have to reach for him. Campbell has as much upside as any DE in the draft not named Chris Long, but he is a couple seasons away from making an impact. WR Early Doucet slipped a little, but his selection was to fill the shoes of Bryant Johnson who’s major role was in the return game. I think the Cardinals found a nice value in Doucet but he doesn’t exactly fill the void that Johnson left.

Minnesota Vikings: C I thought the Vikings draft was rather solid and not sexy. The Vikings took the #2 safety in the draft in Tyrell Johnson. Johnson has the prototype body for an NFL safety but his skills need some development. John David Booty was a great choice in the 5th round and will instantly be in the hunt for playing time. Two seasons from now we may be talking about Booty as the steal of the 2008 draft. John Sullivan being selected in the 6th round was also a great choice by the Vikings, Sullivan is NFL ready and was a strong choice by Minnesota for finding talent so deep in the draft.

Philadelphia Eagles: C The Eagles traded away their 1st round pick and that is what earns them a C for the 2008 draft, but they did pick up an extra first round pick from the Panthers for the 2009 NFL Draft. The Eagles were smart to trade out of the 1st round this year and not take a WR like many experts projected they would because there wasn’t any WR worthy of being selected in the 1st round. DT Trevor Laws is a little short, at 6 foot, but at a powerful 305 pounds, he is a load on the inside and quick as a cat running a 5.08 forty at the NFL Scouting Combine. He only cost the Eagles a second round pick and should start as a rookie. The Eagles chose W DeSean Jackson in the second round as well, but he may prove to be nothing but a punt returner in the NFL. The Eagles have been searching for a playmaker to help Donovan McNabb in his last couple runs at the playoffs and instead got him zero help in this draft. I would have liked to see the Eagles go after WR Malcolm Kelly in the 2nd round instead and take a chance that he could be the playmaker they have been searching for. Jackson is a novelty WR at best where Kelly could be a star or nothing.

The losers:

Chicago Bears: C- The Bears first round selection of Chris Williams probably filled their biggest need but it seemed like a reach to me even though he was rated amongst the top 5 tackles in the draft. I would have rather seen the Bears go with Mendenhall in the first round and then go tackle in the second because Williams is not a sure thing. When selecting a OT in the first round you think of a rock along your offensive line and I am not sure Williams is a slam dunk. With the issues facing the Bears on offense Mendenhall could have provided the team a spark and excited fans after a disappointing 2007 campaign with a local player from Illinois. Selecting RB Matt Forte in the second round also seemed like a stretch because of the other talented backs still available. The Bears also failed to get a much needed quarterback, they haven't drafted a QB since 2005, when they took Kyle Orton in the 4th round. I can’t say that the Bears did much with their abundance of later round choices as well Craig Steltz was a nice pick out of LSU but I don’t expect much from him other than special teams coverage. Flip the Bears first two choices to Mendenhall and John Greco in the second round and my grade goes up to a B+.

Green Bay Packers: D+ The Packers didn’t have a first round choice so this grade is based on later round picks, but their selections were head scratchers. Selecting WR Jordy Nelson was a bit surprising with the amount of young talent the Packers have at receiver. Nelson looks like an undersized tight end but is a very skilled player. The choice of QB Brian Brohm with the second of their 2nd round picks was also a surprise as this will be the first year of the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay and the Packers should be looking for a veteran back-up not a young player looking to prove himself. Also, WR and QB are two positions this team was already pretty set at as far as young talent. Though the Packers didn’t have a 1st round choice, they still could have made selections that would help their team in 2008 and not taking suspect players to build for the future.

New Orleans Saints: D The Saints are my pick for the biggest loser. The Saints traded up to select Sedrick Ellis in the first round and may have been better off waiting at their original slot for Ellis to either fall to them or select a different player. I don’t see Ellis as an elite talent at DT and the drop off from Glenn Dorsey to Ellis was large in my mind. Ellis played on a defensive line at USC with so much talent that his impact was larger in college than it will show to be in the pros. I think the Saints could have benefited more from Ellis’ teammate Keith Rivers, but I don’t think either player would have been worth the price of moving up in the 1st round. Tracy Porter in the second round doesn’t excite me because of his size and the Saints’ later round picks were even more unimpressive. New Orleans had many holes to fill on their team to make a run in 2008 and I think they struck out.

By Joshua Sattler -Seattle Seahawks Team Columnist

2 comments:

Robert Bryant said...

I disagree with you about Sedrick Ellis, there is no way he would have fell down to the Saints if they wouldn't have traded up. Ellis was rated about equal to Glenn Dorsey on many draft boards. I think Ellis is going to be a NFL star. Didn't you see him dominate at the Senior Bowl?

bigmaq said...

I was very surprised by the grades for the Seahawks and then I reached the bottom saw that the author is a Seahawks fan and it all made sense. The consensus is that the Hawks had a terrible draft (confirmed by Football Outsiders compilation of draft opinions). Lo and behold this "review" has then posting the 2nd best in the league. Very suspect, but, then the Hawks PR dept. didn't win the NFL award for nothing. The least one could do is warn us in advance of your bias or report on the Koolaid flavor you've been served.