by Bill Smith
It is impossible to truly judge a draft for at least 3 years. It often takes that long to really find out who can and who can not play big boy football. However, we can take a look at which teams took highly rated players and who really reached to grab players that were not highly rated.
As I said during our draft coverage on my radio show, this draft has generated the widest diversity of player rankings in many years. I have only been evaluating the NFL draft since 1963 so I am pretty new at this. Most of the differences in opinion about players is the result of so many of the top players in this draft having red flags associated with them. These flags range from several players that have a history of cancer to DUI or drug issues to NCAA suspensions to the classic 1 year wonder guys. The boards of each team are directly related to how seriously they view each red flag.
Team: Falcons
Best pick: P 6 Julio Jones WR Alabama - The team reached a long way to get their guy and gave up a bunch to get him. He is very good but will drop a critical pass now and then.
Biggest reach: P 192 Matt Bosher K Miami (Fla.) - I don't ever like drafting a kicker.
Biggest value: P 145 Jacquizz Rodgers RB Oregon State - He will replace Norwood who is a UFA.
P 230 Cliff Matthews DE South Carolina - He can be a solid reserve and can develop into a starter. Not bad for a late pick.
Team: Cards
Best pick: P 5 Patrick Peterson CB LSU - He is one of the top 3 players in the draft and will start day 1.
Biggest reach: P 69 Rob Housler TE Florida Atlantic - I had him rated in the 130's. They could have waited a round to get him.
Biggest value: P 103 Sam Acho DE Texas - Acho was a late 2nd round value and could start.
Team: Ravens
Best pick: P27 Jimmy Smith CB Colorado - Smith has some character issues but the Ravens locker room will help him keep focused on and off the field. He has top 6 talent.
Biggest reach: P 85 Jah Reid OT UCF - I rated Reid as a FA after the draft.
Biggest value: P165 Pernell McPhee DE Mississippi State - He is a raw player that needs coaching but has a lot of potential and was rated as a late 3rd round value.
Team: Bills
Best pick: P3 Marcell Dareus DT Alabama - Dareus was my top DT and is very good against the run and the pass. He starts game 1.
Biggest reach: P100 Da'Norris Searcy SS North Carolina - He was a round 7 guy on my board but has talent.
Biggest value: P 206 Justin Rogers CB Richmond - If he had played at a big name school he would have been a late 1st round pick.
Team: Bears
Best pick: P 195 J.T. Thomas OLB West Virginia - Thomas has 3 years experience at OLB. He will be a special teams star and will compete for a rotation spot.
Biggest reach: P 160 Nathan Enderle QB Idaho - Beauty like potential is in the eye of the beholder.
Biggest value: P 53 Stephen Paea DT Oregon State - Most drafts had him in the late first round.
Team: Browns
Best pick: P 37 Jabaal Sheard DE Pittsburgh - Sheard is a solid DE but is not the pass rusher the team needed.
Biggest reach: P21 Phil Taylor DT Baylor - Taylor is a second round value. It was a good thing they got a number of picks by trading down from 6.
Biggest value: Sheard
Team: Bengals
Best pick: P3 A.J. Green WR Georgia - Green is the top WR and a great addition to a team that had under-achieving WRs last year.
Biggest reach: None - For the first time in years the Bungles did not reach too far for any player.
Biggest value: P 35 Andy Dalton QB TCU - This pick was insurance for Palmer's possible retirement.
Team: Panthers
Best pick: 166 Lawrence Wilson OLB Connecticut - Wilson can play any LB spot and will contribute soon.
Biggest reach: P 65 Terrell McClain DT South Florida - Most people had him in the 4th round. The Panthers must REALLY like him to take him here.
Biggest value: Wilson
Team: Cowboys
Best pick: P 71 DeMarco Murray RB Oklahoma - Murray is a replacement for a couple of high picks that have not worked out. He has power and some speed.
Biggest reach: 110 David Arkin OG Missouri State - He was taken 2 rounds higher than most had him rated.
Biggest value: P 40 Bruce Carter OLB North Carolina - Carter can play which is more than a couple of Cowboy LB picks in the past.
Team: Lions
Best pick: P 57 Mikel LeShoure RB Illinois - Smith was cut and LeShoure should start.
Biggest reach: P 44 Titus Young WR Boise State - They wanted a WR and reached a bit to get Young.
Biggest value: LeShoure
Team: Broncos
Best pick: P2 Von Miller OLB Texas A&M - This was tough because I didn't like much of the draft here. Miller played a combo DE/LB and will be used the same way at DV.
Biggest reach: P 129 Julius Thomas TE Portland State - They need one but I doubt this guy is a player.
Biggest value: P 108 Quinton Carter FS Oklahoma - Carter is a player that can support the run or play center field in a 1 deep coverage.
Team: Packers
Best pick: P 131 Davon House CB New Mexico State - House is a solid CB that was under valued
even in the 2nd round. To get him here is outstanding value.
Biggest reach: P 96 Alex Green RB Hawaii - After RB by committee, they needed one that can play. He would have been available in the late 6th round.
Biggest value: House
Team: Texans
Best pick: P 42 Brooks Reed OLB Arizona - The DE will play OLB for the Texans that are changing to a 3-4 this year. He can rush the passer which is a need for the D.
Biggest reach: P 152 T.J. Yates QB North Carolina - The run on QBs caused the Texans to reach for a guy that in other years would have gone undrafted.
Biggest value: P 127 Rashad Carmichael CB Virginia Tech - He was projected to go in the 3rd round.
Team: Colts
Best pick: P87 Drake Nevis DT LSU - Nevis is solid and can do it all. He was projected in the late 2nd round.
Biggest reach: None - The Colts went chalk and got value with each pick.
Biggest value: P22 Anthony Castonzo OT Boston College - The team got another 1st round LT to try to protect Manning.
Team: Jags
Best pick: P114 Cecil Shorts III WR Mount Union - Shorts is very fast and should give Jag QBs a good deep threat.
Biggest reach: P 121 Chris Prosinski FS Wyoming - He was a good player on a really bad D.
Biggest value: P10 Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri - I don't think he will ever start but in a draft of reaches he was the only one that had a higher projected value.
Team: Chiefs
Best pick: P 86 Allen Bailey DE Miami (Fla.) - Bailey is just OK but this draft was a mess. They took a lot of players with BIG red flags and the locker room is not strong enough to survive it.
Biggest reach: P 140 Gabe Miller DE Oregon State - Miller was rated in the 550's on most boards including mine.
Biggest value: P 26 Jon Baldwin WR Pittsburgh - IF they keep him focused which is not likely.
Team: Dolphins
Best pick: P 62 Daniel Thomas RB Kansas State - He was my top rated RB in a year with very little in the group.
Biggest reach: P231 Frank Kearse DT Alabama A&M - A reach in the 7th round is not bad. Kearse was rated as undrafted.
Biggest value: Thomas
Team: Vikings
Best pick: P 139 Brandon Burton CB Utah - He is a player that had a 2nd round grade.
Biggest reach: P 170 Mistral Raymond FS South Florida - I had him rated in the 600's.
Biggest value: Burton
Team: Patriots
Best pick: P 17 Nate Solder OT Colorado - The Pats need to protect Brady.
Biggest reach: P 194 Markell Carter DE Central Arkansas - This was overall a good draft. A late reach for a guy you like is not a bad thing.
Biggest value: The trades that brought extra picks in 2011
Team: Giants
Best pick: P 52 Marvin Austin DT North Carolina - I think this guy is a steal but so was CB Amukamara at 19. Both could be stars soon. Austin is a penetrating DT that will create havoc in the backfield.
Biggest reach: None that matter. The Giants got 3 of my top producers.
Biggest value: Amukamara - He can start and will support the run better than Peterson.
Team: Jets
Best pick: P94 Kenrick Ellis DT Hampton - He would have been a 1st round pick if he played at a big name school. Ellis can rush the passer and will jam the run.
Biggest reach: None that are significant. The team did a great job getting value.
Biggest value: Ellis
Team: Saints
Best pick: P 24 Cameron Jordan DE California - He will become a regular. The team has problems at both DE spots.
Biggest reach: None of real consequence.
Biggest value: P 226 Greg Romeus DE Pittsburgh - If he had come out last year he would have been a top 10 pick. Injuries hurt his 2010 season.
Team: Raiders
Best pick: P 48 Stefen Wisniewski C Penn State - The need was clear and Wis is solid.
Biggest reach: P81 DeMarcus Van Dyke CB Miami (Fla.) - He has talent but was projected in the very late 7th round.
Biggest value: P 113 Chimdi Chekwa CB Ohio State - One of the best CBs in the league is leaving and the team needed help at the CB spot.
Team: Eagles
Best pick: P 116 Casey Matthews ILB Oregon - He shot up the draft charts when he proved he was fast enough to play MLB in a 4-3.
Biggest reach: P 161 Julian Vandervelde OG Iowa - A smart kid from a school that produces a lot of NFL O line guys. I had him in the 7th round.
Biggest value: P 240 Stanley Havili FB Southern California - Havili is a blaster with decent speed. He is a great value here.
Team: Steelers
Best pick: P31 Cameron Heyward DE Ohio State - Cam is a typical Steeler guy--tough, smart and blue collar. He will be worked into the rotation and help make the team younger on D. The team that started the Super Bowl this year had a D more than 1 year older than the "Over the Hill" Redskin group that won the title.
Biggest reach: P 63 Marcus Gilbert OT Florida - I don't like Gilbert and had him rated in the 4th round.
Biggest value: P 196 Keith Williams OG Nebraska - This kid can pull and will challenge for a starting spot soon. He was off most draft boards but shot up lately. I had him in the 3rd round in terms of value but knew he would last longer.
Team: Chargers
Best pick: P 201 Stephen Schilling OG Michigan - When your best pick is a 7th round choice, there is trouble. Schilling was a good value and can play at this level.
Biggest reach: P 61 Jonas Mouton OLB Michigan - He can play some but would have been available much later.
Biggest value: P 183 Jordan Todman RB Connecticut - He is a solid back and had a 4th round grade. He will replace Sproles on the roster.
Team: Seahawks
Best pick: P 75 John Moffitt OG Wisconsin - Every pick was a reach but at least Moffitt can play. He is a road grader that I had projected in the 4th round.
Biggest reach: P 107 Kris Durham WR Georgia - Most draft projections had him as undraftable. They took him in the 4th round.
Biggest value: None - Every pick was a reach.
Team: 49ers
Best pick: P 36 Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada - I have predicted on my radio show that by 2014 he will be the best QB in this draft. To get him in the 2nd was a value given where other QBs were picked.
Biggest reach: P 80 Chris Culliver FS South Carolina - I though Culliver was OK but had him in the 6th round.
Biggest value: P 115 Kendall Hunter RB Oklahoma State - RB Gore needs a dance partner. Hunter can be a starter for a lot of teams and was a great value here.
Team: Rams
Best pick: P 14 Robert Quinn DE North Carolina - I think Quinn is by far the best 4-3 DE pass rusher to come out of college in years. He will be a great complement to DE Long.
Biggest reach: P 216 Mikail Baker CB Baylor - The Rams had a good draft. I just did not have Baker as even a FA guy.
Biggest value: Quinn
Team: Bucs
Best pick: P 51 Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson - IF his knees are decent, this is a great value. He can rush the QB and was the last above average rusher on the board.
Biggest reach: P 187 Allen Bradford RB Southern California - The team had a lot higher grade on him than anyone I have seen including the coaching staff at USC.
Biggest value: Bowers
Team: Titans
Best pick: P 77 Jurrell Casey DT Southern California - He is a very good DT with some pass rush ability. He could start day 1.
Biggest reach: P8 Jake Locker QB Washington - I REALLY don't get Locker. He reminds me of Clausen last year. Kiper loved both but I don't. The great thing about being a draft analyst is that we will find out who was right and was wrong.
Biggest value: P 104 Luke Stocker TE Tennessee - Everyone had him rated in the late 2nd.
Team: Redskins
Best pick: P 16 Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue - He will play OLB for the 3-4 there. There is always a risk changing a DE in college to OLB because they often are lost in space (see DE Gholston picked 6tj by the Jets who was just released). Kerrigan can rush the QB.
Biggest reach: P 146 DeJon Gomes SS Nebraska - He is raw and needs a lot of work. Most had him very late in the 7th round.
Biggest value: P79 Leonard Hankerson WR Miami (Fla.) - He had late 1st round talent and can pluck the ball out of the air. He and Paul (P 155) should provide help for whoever ends up playing QB.
That's what I think. Tell us what you think.
Bill Smith is a former coach of several semi-pro teams, has officiated both football and basketball, done color on radio for college football and basketball and has scouted talent. He is a senior writer for http://NFLDraftDog.com and edits http://fryingpansports.com. He has also published several novels on
http://www.eBooks-Library.com/Contemporary/
and a non-fiction work at http://www.merriam-press.com/. He edits http://fryingpanpolitics.org/. Also listen to the best Sports Talk anywhere on the Internet and hear his sports show Monday-Friday 6-8 PM EST on http://fryingpansports.com/radio-show/ or http://mooheadradio.com/2.0/.
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